Africa emerges as a rising force in China's growing spodumene imports

According to data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's spodumene imports totaled 710,600 tonnes in September, rising 14.7% from the previous month.

 

In detail, the imports from Australia more than doubled in September, which recorded 347,000 tonnes and were up 66.8% month-on-month (MoM), GACC data showed. The imports from South Africa and Nigeria were 109,000 tonnes and 120,000 tonnes respectively, representing a monthly increase of 93.0% and 14.4%. On the contrary, the spodumene coming from Zimbabwe stood at 109,000 tonnes, falling 7.8% MoM.

 

 

Looking back on the past two months, the spodumene concentrate (SC6) prices averaged $892/tonne CIF China in August and $833/tonne in September, encouraging the miners to ramp up the shipment with the prices rallying and staying above $800/tonne. More importantly, the lithium refineries were with strong demand for feedstock as they extensively opened hedging positions when the futures price hit high in the previous stage, which ensured moderate profits and raised their tolerance for raw material prices.

 

In the first nine months of 2025, China's spodumene imports recorded an annual growth of 37% at approximately 5.58 million tonnes, with Australia and Africa remaining the major suppliers.

 

From a country-wise perspective, China's spodumene imports from Australia reached 2.79 million tonnes over January-September 2025, a mild year-on-year increase of 1.7%, accounting for 50.1% of the total import volume, which was down palpably compared to the 64.3% share in 2024. The drop is primarily attributed to the ramp-up of African resources, as large Chinese enterprises actively secure mineral resources in Africa, benefiting from the region's favorable mining environment and advantages in development efficiency.

 

Reviewing the Australian mineral production and sales data in 2024-2025, the Australian spodumene market has seen the phase-out of high-cost capacity, with the supply void filled up by new projects.

 

In 2024, influenced by the decline in lithium ore prices, the Finniss mine with an annual capacity of 197,000 tonnes ceased production at the beginning of the year and continued inventory drawdown until mid-year; the Mt Cattlin mine with an annual capacity of 200,000 tonnes announced the cessation of mining in mid-year and transitioned to inventory processing; the Bald Hill mine with an annual capacity of 150,000 tonnes announced its shutdown at the end of the year.

 

At the same time, the Kathleen Valley mine with an annual capacity of 500,000 tonnes began ramping up production in mid-2024 and its production has now reached 400,000 tonnes per year; the Mt Holland mine with an annual capacity of 380,000 tonnes started operations in the third quarter of 2024 and has already achieved full production.

 

Overall, the rapid release of new capacity effectively offset the impact of the phase-out of high-cost capacity, ultimately resulting in relatively stable Australian spodumene shipments in 2025 compared to 2024.

 

Referring to Mysteel's 2025 historical Australian spodumene port arrival data, its trend is largely consistent with customs import data. Therefore, based on Mysteel's more forward-looking Australian spodumene port arrival data, it is estimated that the October imports of Australian spodumene will largely remain flat compared with those in September.

 

 

The African spodumene industry in 2025 is experiencing accelerated capacity release, prominent cost advantages, and the rise of new supplying countries.

 

Against the backdrop of continuously bottoming lithium prices, African lithium mines have achieved costs lower than previous market expectations with measures like improving infrastructure, constructing new power plants, and optimizing transportation costs.

 

For example, Chengxin Lithium's Sabi Star project underwent a production halt for maintenance and line optimization in the first quarter of 2025 due to high initial mining costs. The replacement of diesel power generation with a newly built thermal power plant effectively reduced the electricity costs.

 

Mali, as an emerging supplier, began to ramp up spodumene exports in August 2025. To date, the Goulamina project has shipped three vessels of spodumene concentrate (two arrived in August, one is expected in October) to China. The Bougouni project also announced on October 20 that its first batch of 30,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate will be officially shipped. In the future, Mali is expected to become one of the stable sources of African spodumene supply.

 

In summary, the previous sharp spike in lithium carbonate futures price has provided hedging opportunities for the market. Coupled with sustained strong demand and lithium ore prices pulling back from recent high, the lithium refineries are operating with strong momentum and accelerating raw material consumption.

 

Meanwhile, the miners can maintain stable shipments at current price levels. Based on Mysteel's tracking of spodumene port arrivals, it is estimated that the October imports will remain high.

 

Additionally, some lithium players are continuing to actively secure mineral resources, and close attention should be paid to the supply increments resulting from the production expansion progress of African spodumene projects.