China's crude oil supply outlook to 2030: Balancing domestic production, import dependency, and policy levers

China's crude output has stabilized after years of upstream investment, but supply security through 2030 will be determined less by production levels and more by the shifting balance between demand, imports, and policy choices. Domestic limits, evolving consumption patterns, and external geopolitical constraints are together reshaping the structure of China's oil market. The core risk is shifting away from crude availability toward the questions of where it is sourced and how it reaches the market.

At the same time, sectoral transitions are diverging. Electrification is eroding gasoline demand, LNG is displacing diesel in freight, and the chemical sector remains constrained by overcapacity and weak margins. Refining upgrades and quota policies are altering the composition of crude imports, underscoring the strategic weight of supplier diversification. Against this backdrop, this white paper assesses how China's crude balance, import dependency, and trade flows will evolve through 2030.

 

 

China's crude output rebounded following the launch of the 2019-2025 Seven-Year Action Plan, which mandated domestic producers to expand reserves and boost production. As a result, China's output grew at an average of 2% annually between 2019 and 2024, reaching 212.9 Mt in 2024 (+1.8% YoY), close to the 2025 record of 214.6 Mt.

Apparent crude consumption reached 764 Mt in 2024, down 1.0% YoY, mainly due to sluggish demand for gasoline and diesel as EV adoption rose and LNG displaced diesel in freight. Refining margins and operating rate fell further amid a sluggish chemical sector.

 

 

Domestic crude output is projected to grow only 0.5-1% annually through 2030, reaching 220-225 Mt. This gradual increase may lower import dependency slightly to 70-71%.

With limited net refining capacity growth - largely swaps replacing small, outdated plants - China's crude throughput is expected to remain broadly stable and making it difficult to significantly ease import pressures through refining capacity expansion.

Apparent consumption may recover modestly to 770 Mt in 2025-2026 but is likely to trend down, potentially falling to 757 Mt by 2030 (-0.9% vs. 2024).

 

 

Since 2019, China's net crude imports have exceeded 500 Mt annually. In 2024, volumes declined 2% YoY to 551.4 Mt as fuel demand softened. Import dependency, however, still stood at 72.4%.

In 2024, the top 10 suppliers accounted for 88.4% of imports. Russia consolidated its lead with 108 Mt (19.6%), surpassing Saudi Arabia's 78.6 Mt (14.2%). Malaysia emerged as the third-largest supplier (12.7%), serving as a transshipment hub for sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan crude.

 

China's Dual Carbon and "Less Fuel, More Chemicals" strategies discourage the use of fuel oil as feedstock. Quota adjustments are steering independent refiners toward compliant crude, reshaping sourcing choices and reinforcing long-term reliance on crude over alternative feedstocks.

 

 

The central issue is no longer whether the global market can supply crude to China - the import volumes remain accessible - but rather how China chooses its path to energy security: by pursuing broader diversification of supply sources, or by relying on quota and regulatory management to secure accessible flows.

These two approaches entail fundamentally different risk and cost structures, and will ultimately shape downstream profitability models and trade strategies.