China's 1# refined copper spot prices stood at Yuan 77,928/tonne on July 17, falling slightly by Yuan 67/tonne day on day, according to Mysteel's assessment. Specifically, spot prices in Shanghai ranged between Yuan 77,980-78,110/tonne, averaging at Yuan 77,995/tonne. The 1# refined copper average spot premiums in Shanghai remained unchanged at Yuan 80/tonne.
China's refined copper market stayed stable on July 17, with spot premiums generally stabilizing amid the downstream demand off-season. Mysteel's survey covering 53 refined copper trading enterprises (including traders, smelters, and downstream fabricators) in China indicated that the daily spot transaction volume totaled 28,800 tonnes on July 17, rising by 4,000 tonnes or 16.22% from the previous trading day, primarily due to the increasing transactions among traders.
China's refined copper social inventory began to rebound this week from previous declines. In the Shanghai market, though market arrivals remained relatively limited, weak downstream purchasing and reduced shipments pushed up inventory over the week. In the Guangdong market, smelter shipments rose, while downstream consumption remained demand-driven, keeping inventory levels relatively stable. Looking ahead, if refined copper arrivals into China's social warehouses increase next week with prices remaining stable, downstream purchasing demand is expected to stay subdued. Consequently, inventory may continue to accumulate, exerting downward pressure on refined copper prices in China.
Concerning downstream copper semis markets, Mysteel's 31 Chinese copper rod sample manufacturers with a total annual capacity of 6.01 million tonnes and 6 sample traders reported that order volumes decreased by 3,300 tonnes or 23.93% day on day, reaching 10,600 tonnes on July 17, with refined copper rod transactions dropping but secondary rising. Refined copper rod prices saw limited adjustments, leading to a slight day-on-day decline in orders, while delivery remained largely stable. In the secondary copper rod market, weak price competitiveness continued to dampen transaction activity, though slightly improved compared to earlier periods. Despite persistent spot demand from downstream enterprises, high copper scrap prices and limited supply slowed raw material replenishment for many secondary copper rod producers, weighing on both operating rates and delivery schedules. With the off-season underway and copper prices remaining elevated, a significant rebound in refined copper demand from all copper semis sectors is unlikely in the near term.
Copper prices in non-U.S. markets declined this week due to expectations surrounding the U.S. 50% tariff on copper imports. However, remarks from the Federal Reserve on a potential rate cut in July spurred a broad price rebound across the global non-ferrous metals sector on Thursday night. Looking ahead, macroeconomic uncertainty and weak fundamentals are expected to continue exerting downward pressure on China's copper prices next week, with spot premiums likely to remain flat.