2025 Bulk Commodity Mid-Year Report Released:
(1) Steel Billet: For the domestic steel billet market in the second half of 2025, raw material prices remain under pressure from the cost perspective. While steel mills maintain profit margins, this provides limited support for billet prices. Domestic prices may continue their volatile trend, with the overall price center of gravity shifting downwards.
(2) Coke: In the second half, driven by the gradual bottoming-out of coking coal prices and recovering seasonal demand, coke prices are expected to see staged rebound corrections. However, the upside is estimated at only 100-150 yuan/ton. The overall price center of gravity will still trend downwards, with an expected decline of 150-200 yuan/ton.
(3) Coking Coal: The supply-demand contradiction has eased. The key focus now is verifying the actual extent of demand reduction. Overall, coking coal price pressure in H2 will be less than in H1. Negotiation room in intermediate links is limited, speculative liquidity in the spot market has shrunk, and the price trend will remain under pressure.
(4) Construction Steel: Construction steel prices in H2 are expected to decline first before rising later, with a rebound likely starting around the end of Q3. Based on the Mysteel Rebar Absolute Price Index, the average price in H2 is forecasted around 3,150 yuan/ton, with a normal operating range of 3,000-3,300 yuan/ton.
◎ National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in June, China's Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI, and Composite PMI were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, rising by 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. All three indices saw increases.
◎ The Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement clarifying that during the period from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028, if overseas investors use profits distributed by Chinese resident enterprises for direct investment within China and meet the conditions, they can offset 10% of the investment amount against their taxable income for the year.
◎ At 24:00 on July 1st, China's domestic refined oil retail price ceiling will enter a new adjustment window. According to Longzhong Information, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices are expected to increase by approximately 230 yuan/ton.
◎ Canada announced the withdrawal of its Digital Services Tax to bring trade negotiations with the United States back on track. US President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney have agreed to restart negotiations and aim to reach an agreement by July 21st.
◎ On June 30th local time, the Council of the European Union announced the decision to extend sanctions against Russia for another six months, until January 31, 2026.
◎ On June 30th, the transaction volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports was 896,000 tonnes, down 5.3% day-on-day (d-o-d). Transactions of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders totaled 104,900 tonnes, up 0.4% d-o-d.
◎ From June 23rd to June 29th, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 24.135 million tonnes, down 359,400 tonnes week-on-week (w-o-w). Arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 23.630 million tonnes, down 199,700 tonnes w-o-w. Arrivals at six northern ports totaled 12.172 million tonnes, up 63,700 tonnes w-o-w.
◎ From June 23rd to June 29th, global iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 28.823 million tonnes, down 1.785 million tonnes w-o-w. Australian shipments were 19.990 million tonnes (down 1.109 million tonnes w-o-w), and Brazilian shipments were 8.833 million tonnes (down 677,000 tonnes w-o-w).
◎ As of June 27th, thermal coal inventory at 55 port samples nationwide stood at 7.2841 million tonnes, down 357,000 tonnes from the previous week.
◎ Shanxi Jin'nan Steel Group plans to conduct maintenance on one 1,860 cubic meter blast furnace starting July 1st. This will affect daily hot metal output by approximately 7,000 tonnes. The restart date is to be determined.
◎ A major mine under Changzhi's leading coal producer arranged a shutdown for maintenance from June 28th to July 12th, totaling 15 days. The mine has an approved capacity of 7.10 million tonnes and produces low-sulfur lean coal. The total estimated impact on raw coal output is 375,000 tonnes.
◎ According to the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), China's billet exports have grown excessively fast since 2025. Annualized calculations suggest exports could exceed 10 million tonnes. Large-scale billet exports are detrimental to the industry's energy conservation, carbon reduction, and green transformation. Relevant enterprises are advised to focus on long-term goals and adopt a prudent approach to billet exports.
◎ The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting July 1, 2025, anti-dumping duties will continue to be imposed on imports of stainless steel billets and stainless steel hot-rolled sheet/coil originating from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia. The anti-dumping duty rates range from 20.2% to 103.1%, and will be in effect for 5 years.
◎ According to Mysteel's incomplete statistics, since the start of this year, 19 provinces including Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Tianjin, Chongqing, and Henan have released their lists of key construction projects for 2025. Among these, 177 projects are related to the steel industry. Details >>
◎ A relevant official from the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) stated that the exchange will continuously enrich its product system, accelerating the research and development of products such as platinum, palladium, and lithium hydroxide.
◎ The latest data from the China Index Academy (CA) shows that from January to June 2025, the total sales value of the TOP 100 real estate enterprises was 1,836.41 billion yuan, down 11.8% year-on-year.
◎ Data from the Ministry of Transport shows that from January to May, completed fixed asset investment in transportation reached 1.2 trillion yuan. Within this, investment in roads and waterways amounted to 860.7 billion yuan and 87.0 billion yuan, respectively.
◎ According to the China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA), the June inventory warning index for Chinese automobile dealers was 56.6%, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year but up 3.9 percentage points month-on-month. The prosperity level in the auto circulation industry has declined.